Table of Contents
- The projected fair value for Pets at Home Group is UK£5.33 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Pets at Home Group’s UK£3.11 share price signals that it might be 42% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 27% higher than Pets at Home Group’s analyst price target of UK£4.18
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Pets at Home Group Plc (LON:PETS) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Pets at Home Group
Crunching The Numbers
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (£, Millions)||UK£90.3m||UK£107.9m||UK£123.5m||UK£141.0m||UK£164.0m||UK£180.6m||UK£194.1m||UK£205.1m||UK£214.0m||UK£221.5m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x7||Analyst x6||Analyst x5||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ 10.11%||Est @ 7.49%||Est @ 5.66%||Est @ 4.37%||Est @ 3.48%|
|Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%||UK£83.4||UK£92.1||UK£97.5||UK£103||UK£110||UK£112||UK£112||UK£109||UK£105||UK£100|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£1.0b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£221m× (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (8.2%– 1.4%) = UK£3.3b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£3.3b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= UK£1.5b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£2.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£3.1, the company appears quite good value at a 42% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Pets at Home Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.158. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Pets at Home Group
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Pets at Home Group, there are three relevant elements you should explore:
- Risks: Take risks, for example – Pets at Home Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does PETS’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.